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Associated Press
A convoy of military vehicles bearing no license plates travels on the road Saturday from Feodosia to Simferopol in the Crimea, Ukraine. The U.S. estimates there now are 20,000 Russian troops in the region.

Crimea events expose escalation risk

Moscow says it will accept region’s split

– Russian President Vladimir Putin is showing no signs of heeding Western calls to ease the standoff in Crimea, where pro-Kremlin forces stepped up their takeover of the Ukrainian region preparing for a separatist referendum.

Gunmen fired warning shots as international observers tried to enter Crimea for a third day and a Ukrainian border patrol plane came under fire that didn’t cause injuries. TV5 reported that a military agency in the regional capital Simferopol was captured and 70 unidentified trucks entered the city.

Ukraine is struggling to keep hold of Crimea, home to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, after pro-Russian forces took control of it in the wake of Moscow-backed Viktor Yanukovych’s ouster as president. Western officials say they’re concerned that the situation in the peninsula, where the U.S. estimates there now are 20,000 Russian troops confronting a smaller Ukrainian military force, threatens to explode at any moment.

“Russia and Ukraine, right now, are one nervous 20-year-old soldier’s mistake away from something very, very bad happening that could spin out of control,” said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. There are about 12,000 Ukrainian troops in Crimea, he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry discussed the situation by phone on Saturday, agreeing that “intensive contacts” were necessary to resolve the crisis, according to a statement by the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. Kerry said on Thursday in Rome that he had presented Lavrov with ideas to take to Putin.

As Putin opened the 2014 Paralympic Games in Sochi on Friday, lawmakers in Moscow pledged to accept the results of a March 16 referendum on Crimea joining Russia.

The peninsula, where Russian speakers constitute a majority, will join Russia once parliament in Moscow passes the necessary legislation and there’s nothing the West can do to stop the process, according to Sergei Tsekov, the deputy speaker of Crimea’s parliament.

“There’s no comeback, and the U.S. or Europe can’t impede us,” Tsekov said by phone on Friday from Moscow, where he met Russian officials to discuss the region’s future. “Crimea won’t be part of Ukraine anymore. There are no more options.”

President Barack Obama had a phone conversation Saturday with French counterpart Francois Hollande and agreed that there’s no legal basis for the referendum and that Russia should withdraw its forces, according to an emailed statement from Hollande’s office.

Obama and Hollande are seeking direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia as well as the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to the statement.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin on Saturday met Volodymyr Yelchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Moscow. The two discussed the countries’ relations in a “frank atmosphere,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on its website.

Germany wants to “mobilize an as-broad-as-possible international coalition” to counter Russian threats over Ukraine, Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported, citing unidentified people from the Foreign Ministry.

A Ukrainian division at Shcholkino was stormed by Russian soldiers, who beat servicemen, confiscated their mobile phones and forced them and their families to leave, Ukraine’s border guard service said in a statement. Eleven border guard units are currently being blocked, according to a separate statement.

The service later said 100 Russian soldiers and 50 other men took control of the ferry across the Kerch Strait to Russia, stopping border guards from inspecting 31 trucks arriving in Crimea.

Pifer said Russian forces have tried to provoke Ukraine’s military and that it was “very commendable” the Ukrainians haven’t challenged the Russians who’ve surrounded their bases.

“There needs to be some kind of de-escalation,” said Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.