WASHINGTON – The growing gap between the richest Americans and everyone else isnt bad just for individuals. Its hurting the U.S. economy.
So says a majority of more than three dozen economists surveyed last week by the Associated Press. Their concerns tap into a debate thats intensified as middle-class pay has stagnated while wealthier households have thrived.
A key source of the economists concern: Higher pay and outsize stock market gains are flowing mainly to affluent Americans. Yet these households spend less of their money than do low- and middle-income consumers who make up most of the population but whose pay is barely rising.
What you want is a broader spending base, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, a financial advisory firm. You want more people spending money.
Spending by wealthier Americans, given the weight of their dollars, does help drive the economy. But analysts say the economy would be better able to sustain its growth if the riches were more evenly dispersed. For one thing, a plunge in stock prices typically leads wealthier Americans to cut sharply back on their spending.
The broader the improvement, the more likely it will be sustained, said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Income inequality has steadily worsened in recent decades, according to government data and academic studies. The most recent census figures show that the average income for the wealthiest 5 percent of U.S. households, adjusted for inflation, has surged 17 percent in the past 20 years. By contrast, average income for the middle 20 percent of households has risen less than 5 percent.
Economists appear to be increasingly concerned about the effects of inequality on growth. In a speech this month, President Barack Obama declared inequality the defining challenge of our time.
Brown, the Raymond James economist, says analysts used to debate whether inequality was worsening.
Now, he says, theres not much denial of that ... and youre starting to see some research saying, yes, it does slow the economy.
What else to expect
The AP survey collected the views of private, corporate and academic economists on a range of issues. Among the economists other views:
The economic recovery, which officially began 4 1/2 years ago, has yet to reach its high point. And nearly all think the next recession is at least three years away; half think its at least five years away. The economists forecast that growth will average 2.9 percent in 2014. That would be the healthiest annual pace since 2005.
The Obama administrations health care law will make little or no difference to the job market. About two-fifths said the law would cost jobs. None said it would increase hiring.
The law has drawn fierce opposition from many small business owners, who say it will raise hiring costs by requiring companies with 50 or more employees to provide coverage starting in 2015.
The stock market isnt in a bubble. While the Dow Jones industrial average reached record highs earlier this year, most economists said that higher profits largely justified the gains.
Europe will keep growing and avoid a recession in 2014. But growth will remain so tepid that inflation will co nearly non-existent. Nearly two-thirds of the economists forecast that inflation wont consistently reach the European Central Banks inflation target of 2 percent until 2016.
Inflation in the United States will remain low for the long run. A majority of economists think consumer inflation wont consistently meet or exceed the Feds 2 percent target level until 2015 or later.