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Road to recovery

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At a glance
Manufacturing: Orders for manufactured goods expected to last at least three years rose 3 percent last month, the Commerce Department said.
Jobless claims: Weekly applications rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000. But that followed a week in which they fell to near a four-year low.
Associated Press
Attendees at the JobEXPO’s job fair discuss job opportunities on Wednesday in New York. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week after falling to a nearly four-year low the previous week.

Companies spark hope for economy

– Businesses are growing more confident in the economy, investing in more equipment and laying off fewer workers.

Government figures on manufacturing and unemployment claims released Thursday raised hopes on the eve of a report on how much the economy grew in the October-December quarter.

“Business optimism seems to be picking up, which is critical to the growth and competitiveness of the U.S. economy over the long haul,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial.

Orders for manufactured goods expected to last at least three years rose 3 percent last month, the Commerce Department said. And demand for goods that indicate business investment plans hit an all-time high.

A tax break that expired in December for large equipment purchases may have helped boost orders.

Still, many economists said most companies are likely buying equipment simply because business is improving.

Manufacturers “have a real need to ramp up their spending on capital improvements ... because the economy is growing and industrial capacity has not kept up,” said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

Factories are busier in large part because businesses are ordering more communication equipment, industrial machinery and autos. Economists pay close attention to demand for such core capital goods, which are considered a good proxy for business investment plans.

In December, orders for core capital goods rose to a record $68.9 billion. That’s more than 45 percent higher than the recession low hit in April 2009.

Companies are laying off fewer workers, which has some economists optimistic about job growth in January.

Weekly applications rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000. But that followed a week in which they fell to near a four-year low. And the longer-term trend is pointing to a healthier job market.

The four-week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

The nation has added at least 100,000 jobs for six straight months. And the unemployment rate has declined to 8.5 percent – the lowest rate in almost three years.

Some economists worry that businesses are investing in heavy equipment so they don’t need to hire as many workers. But Riccadonna said that recent data show otherwise. Companies spent more in the first half of the year, and hiring picked up several months later.

“You need workers to produce the equipment and you need workers to operate it once it’s put it in place,” he said.

Growth likely accelerated in the final three months of the year to a 3 percent annual pace, according to a survey of economists by Factset.

That would be an improvement over the 1.8 percent pace in July-September quarter, and a relief after seeing 0.9 percent growth in the first half of last year.

The Commerce Department will report the actual figure today.