FORT WAYNE – The Devil is sitting on my shoulder this day, disguised as some twitchy gump with a glass eye and a mouthful of failed dentistry. He stands 5-foot-2 only if a ladder’s handy. A stogie the size of a Lincoln Log is clenched between the blasted stumps of his teeth.

The Devil calls this incarnation “Vinny,” as in “Vinny the Book.”

“Come on,” Vinny coaxes. “Do it. You know you wanna.”

We’re talking about the NFL playoffs. Vinny’s trying to convince me to say the 49ers will be in the Super Bowl.

There are all kinds of reasons I’d like to, not the least of which is the fact that the Niners, who are fast and nasty and love to blow up your best-laid plans, have the best defense in the playoffs that isn’t physically crippled (i.e., the Steelers). And defense wins championships. Everyone says so.

But who’s everybody? And when did they say it?

Surely not this year. This is the new NFL, where you’d better not set your glass on the end table without a coaster, mister, nor breathe too heavily on a quarterback or receiver. And mind that doily, it’s grandma’s best one.

“Yeah, but it’s the Niners,” Vinny the Devil whispers. “Jim Harbaugh! All those exciting young players! It’s the breakout pick!”

He’s right, of course. The Niners are the breakout pick. And they’ve beaten – let’s see – four playoff teams already this year: Cincinnati, Detroit, the Giants, the Steelers.

“Crushed the Steelmen,” Vinny whispers. “Don’t forget that, buddy.”

I won’t. Here’s something else I can’t forget, though: Alex Smith, and all those rules that make the quarterback the most important factor on the field now.

Am I really going to pick Smith, the 19th-rated passer in the league, over Drew Brees and his record 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns? Over Aaron Rodgers? Over Eli Manning and his 15 fourth-quarter touchdown passes?

“Yeah, sure!” Vinny says. “Defense wins championships!”

And that’s when I snatch the stogie out of his mouth and knock him off my shoulder.

Because, no, that’s not true anymore.

If it were, the top seeds in the AFC and NFC wouldn’t be the Patriots and the Packers, the two worst defenses in the league. The Steelers, with the No. 1-ranked defense, wouldn’t be playing a wild-card game in Denver this weekend. Ditto the Texans, the No. 2-ranked “D.”

Defense Wins Championships is as dead as I Like Ike in this NFL. And so I’m going with … the Saints and the Pats.

The Pats because Tom Brady is absolutely killing, and, even if the Patriots ‘D’ looks like the National Convention of Turnstiles, they’re not exactly up against Patton’s Third Army. Except for Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, no AFC playoff QB has a passer rating above 80; Andy Dalton’s a rookie, Joe Flacco’s playing like one, Tim Tebow’s quarterback rating is so low Jacques Cousteau can’t find it, and, in Houston, the Texans are down to Jake Delhomme and 147-year-old Jeff Garcia.

And the Saints?

This might sound odd, but not long ago I watched a video in which Brees and an expert archer squared off to see who was more accurate. Brees won going away. Every single throw he made – 10 of 10 – not only hit the bull’s eye dead center but hit it in exactly the same spot.

So, New Orleans it is.

“What a stupid way to pick your Super Bowl teams,” Vinny sneered, climbing to his feet. “They oughta call you Nostradumbus.”

“They oughta call you gone,” I replied, cold-cocking him as he rose.

Offense wins championships.