FORT WAYNE – The 2007 mayoral race was full of intrigue, ranging from scandalous birthday cakes to criminal indictments.

Yet it lacked one staple of most municipal cycles: a truly competitive mayoral debate on issues.

That won't be the case this year. With the sideshow of a candidate under indictment gone, political experts expect this year's battle between Paula Hughes and Tom Henry to be far more contentious and closely fought than 2007's.

Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at IPFW, said it would be difficult for any race to match the oddities that occurred four years ago.

"This would be a campaign much more like a traditional campaign," he said. "2007 was the exception, not the rule."

The differences are already stark, showing both sides view this as a more competitive race.

Henry, the incumbent, began running television ads before Labor Day. Four years ago he waited until Sept. 19 to do so. The state Democrats already have sent at least five direct-mail pieces to voters after not sending any in 2007.

The Hughes campaign began airing television ads last week – Matt Kelty didn't raise enough money for television four years ago.

The state GOP is also helping with a staff member and direct mail.

Avoiding combat

After Kelty was indicted for campaign finance charges and perjury – he eventually pleaded guilty to some of the charges – Henry could have noted, if not exploited, those legal issues. Instead, he seemed to almost go out of his way not to mention them.

Kevin Knuth, local Democratic spokesman, said he remembers Henry delaying one of his campaign events to avoid being questioned about Kelty's problems. The delay didn't help, as he still faced them, but Henry repeatedly declined to comment about them.

"At this point in time four years ago, Tom Henry did not want to be piling on Matt Kelty's problems," Knuth said. "This is definitely a different race. I think you will see more campaigning."

Steve Shine, local GOP chairman, said Kelty's issues overshadowed the entire race, allowing Henry to slip into office.

"In 2007, there was a focus on the problems of the Republican mayoral candidate more than a focus on the issues," he said.

Dan Parker, state Democratic chairman, said while his party did help the Henry campaign somewhat in 2007, it became clear as the race progressed that Henry did not need much help to win.

Downs said Henry's low-key approach in 2007 worked well because attacking someone already bogged by legal problems could backfire.

Changed tactics

That's not the strategy this season.

Campaigns and political parties have been openly attacking each other since the primary season. While there was some infighting among Republicans, the vast majority of vitriol was aimed at the mayor.

In fact, one Republican debate was so overwhelmingly anti-Henry that even the moderator was calling for his ouster.

The Henry campaign said little until Hughes secured the nomination but has since attacked her past voting record. Aside from the five mail pieces sent by the state party, Henry's campaign has aired commercials attacking Hughes' record and the local Democrats have posted a website www.therealpaula.com doing the same.

Shine, calling the mail pieces malicious, said the attacks were a clear sign that the Henry campaign was struggling.

Parker, however, said this is clearly a different race from 2007, and it is imperative to show voters how Hughes' stances during the campaign differ from her past actions.

"It's our job to help the mayor fight back and get the message out on records," he said.

He said sending several similar mail pieces was intentional because the message must be repetitive to ensure it clicks with voters.

Republicans haven't been quiet, with Hughes attacking Henry's record at almost every event. Her first TV ad accused the mayor of being responsible for thousands of job losses and exploding city debt.

The local Republican Party even released its own website, www.therealtomhenry.com attacking the mayor's record on raising taxes.

Shine said his party's website was a direct response to the Democrats' website attacking Hughes.

While the site has a few empty tabs, Shine said more information will be posted as the campaign progresses to keep people coming back.

The attacks from both sides are similar: The candidates are painted as tax-happy politicians with no fiscal restraint.

Parker said it is important to note Hughes' record because of her recent pledge never to raise city taxes. He said the party wasn't attacking the reason for the tax increases, acknowledging sometimes such increases are necessary, but the party believes it is critical to show both sides of Hughes.

"She's saying one thing and done another," he said.

The contrasting – some would say negative – advertisements have drawn criticism from each side. Democrats have consistently challenged the accuracy of Hughes' attacks, while Republicans have accused Henry of resorting to attacks because of lagging support.

IPFW's Downs, however, said the aggressive campaigns mostly show that the candidates either expect it to be a close race or feel they've found a weakness to exploit. He said the issues being raised may be slightly skewed by politics, but they all still reside in some fact – a vote or a budget.

"Everything that has been said that I've seen has been a legitimate question to ask a candidate," he said.

40 percent rule

Even with the help of incumbency and a huge campaign war chest, Henry still faces one large challenge: demographics.

Both Shine and Knuth noted that while Kelty was facing numerous legal challenges and a splintered party, he was still able to capture 40 percent of the votes in 2007.

With a candidate not facing legal problems and able to attract Republican support, Shine said this year's race will be the first true test for how Aboite Township's annexation will affect city politics. The area is generally thought to lean Republican.

Pete Seat, Indiana GOP spokesman, said the Fort Wayne mayoral campaign is drawing statewide attention because of the potential to bring new leadership to the area. A Democrat has been mayor in Fort Wayne since 2000 despite the area leaning Republican in national politics.

"I know that it's one a number of Republicans are paying attention to across the state," Seat said about the race.

Knuth said Henry is helped by being the incumbent. He said it normally takes a lot to throw out a sitting mayor, and noted Paul Helmke could probably still be mayor if he wanted to.

Downs said he hasn't seen anything from either campaign indicating they are significantly behind in the race. While he said Henry going on television early might help, there is plenty of time left for either candidate to overcome any obstacle.

Knuth agreed, noting that each side has its solid supporters, and the key will be to attract moderates and undecided voters.

"I think any race is going to be close, that's the reality in politics anymore," Knuth said.

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