With just four weeks left until the May primary, the campaign styles of the candidates in the biggest race – Republican nomination for mayor – are shaping up.
Paula Hughes’ style has been attack, attack, attack – not just Democratic Mayor Tom Henry but also her principal GOP opponents.
Eric Doden has gone the opposite direction, working on name recognition and promoting his own ideas rather than much criticism of others – the stereotypical “positive campaign.”
Liz Brown has been more reactive to the other two and has yet to develop her campaign’s personality.
So far, Hughes has largely set the agenda. And she’s been mostly effective in following up her criticisms with specific plans for change. Negative campaigning often works but can also backfire, particularly if voters believe the criticisms are unfair or over the top. And firing criticisms at fellow party members can carry lingering animosity when the time comes to unite behind the party’s candidate.
Doden is likely poised for a big media blitz in the days and weeks before the election. He probably wants to conserve his finances for a major push soon before the election. The risk is that some voters will have already made up their mind before Doden starts making his case, especially now that more and more voters are casting ballots before Election Day.
Brown, whose pointed criticisms of the Henry administration from the City Council table have won admiration from more than a few Republicans, has been the least focused so far. Like Doden, she is likely planning a media campaign soon before the election, though hers could well be more compressed than either Doden’s or Hughes’, both of whom had far outpaced Brown in fundraising as of Dec. 31.
The next campaign finance reports, which will update the fundraising efforts of the campaigns, are due April 15.
The two other Republicans on the ballot – Fred Osheskie and Terrence Walker – are unlikely to be factors in the primary.
New Haven
Henry also faces opponents in the Democratic primary – four, in fact. But none is likely to run a serious campaign or pose a threat.
The same isn’t necessarily true in New Haven, where 12-year incumbent Republican Terry McDonald has three opponents: Former three-term City Council member John Overman; New Haven Middle School track coach Robert Walda; and Carrie Schoff-Wilson, an HR consultant and wife of a former council member.
But the more worthy opponents an incumbent has, the better it usually is for the incumbent. The anti-McDonald vote, to the extent it exists, will be spread among three candidates. His opponents appear to be largely trying to paint McDonald as being not conservative enough with the city’s finances, criticism that may not stick to the conservative mayor.
