INDIANAPOLIS – With potential candidates staying mum on a 2012 governor’s bid, speculation in political circles is running high. And it mostly focuses on a matchup between former Democratic Gov. Evan Bayh and GOP Congressman Mike Pence.
“It’s a clash of titans. Two really strong candidates with a clear vision and different approaches,” said Robert Dion, associate professor of political science at the University of Evansville. “The other possibilities don’t inspire the same kind of excitement.”
The election isn’t for almost two years, but behind-the-scenes maneuvering must begin soon to make a competitive run. Bayh and Pence, though, have essentially frozen the field until they decide what they want to do.
In a recent interview with the South Bend Tribune, Bayh called running for governor a “possibility” but not a “probability.” And Pence hasn’t even said that, as he is also considering a presidential run.
Both are likely to make decisions by the beginning of the year, which leaves politicos to stew over the pros and cons of potential nominees and even a possible primary on the GOP side.
Dion said Gov. Mitch Daniels did the right thing recently by admonishing anyone interested in running for any 2012 office to “stifle yourself” and focus on governing for a while.
“But any good campaign will be operating under the radar away from public view. Speaking through back channels, lining up endorsements, sizing up the race,” he said. “Those things aren’t in the paper, but they are being done.”
Democrats
Bayh has a long history in public service in Indiana, serving as secretary of state, two terms as governor and two terms in the U.S. Senate.
It would be somewhat of a novelty in Indiana to have a former governor come back for another term. Since the early 1970s – when governors started to be allowed to serve consecutive terms – only one has tried it. Former Gov. Matthew Welsh served four years in the 1960s and then challenged Otis Bowen in 1972, losing badly.
But Terry Branstad in Iowa just won a fifth term as governor after a 12-year break.
“Public service has been a major part of (Bayh’s) life and during his term as governor he was outstanding,” former Democratic Party Chairman Robin Winston said. “I fundamentally believe that he is the kind of person we need to help us lead our state into the future. I really hope he’ll run.”
A third run for governor – Bayh served from 1989 through 1997 – could give him a new platform to seek the presidency, since his Senate seat hasn’t propelled him to the front of the presidential pack.
“It is another path that has been successful for others,” said Rep. Win Moses, D-Fort Wayne. “Or maybe he just enjoys being governor.”
Bayh brings a winning record in campaigns and wall-to-wall name recognition – probably better than anyone in the state. He is also a prolific fundraiser and already has a $10 million war chest that could be transferred for a gubernatorial run.
Several people think a Bayh-Pence contest, especially, could turn into a $50 million governor’s race.
“People have fond memories of him as governor. A time of growth. No scandal. Very steady. No drama,” Dion said.
So what’s the downside to a Bayh candidacy?
Andrew Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at IPFW, said some Democrats are ticked off at him right now.
“There are people in the state and quite frankly throughout the entire country who are not very happy with him,” Downs said.
Many Democrats think he gave up a seat he probably could have won, which caused a domino of losses in other seats in southern Indiana. And he decided late, leaving the party with few options.
Bayh also held on to much of his cash instead of helping candidates in Indiana and around the country, then criticized Democrats, Downs said.
But Moses said the low grumbles will fall away if Bayh runs, and Dion pointed out that there is no one who has had more success at running and winning in the last 30 years as a Democrat.
He also said that Bayh should make his decision quickly, “to atone for his sucker punch earlier in the year” and give Democrats time to find a quality candidate in his absence.
If Bayh doesn’t run, there are a few lesser-known Democrats in the mix.
One possibility is Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel, who served previously in the Indiana House. He knows state and local government issues and is articulate and bright, but he has virtually no name recognition in other parts of the state.
He is in more of a pinch than others because he needs to make a decision soon about whether to seek a third term as mayor in 2011. He is likely waiting until he finds out if Bayh will run for governor.
Former 9th District Congressman Baron Hill was interested in a possible gubernatorial run before the election, but he was defeated handily by Republican Todd Young. Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez also would like to be considered for the post.
“It’s going to be a tough row to hoe for anyone else,” Downs said.
Republicans
The talk on the GOP side is down to two names – Pence and Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman.
Winston said he doesn’t automatically think Skillman is an easier foe for Democrats than Pence.
“You are talking to someone who believes in GOTV – get out the vote,” he said. “Whoever works the hardest and connects with voters will prevail.”
But Skillman is currently taking a back seat in speculation to Pence, who just gave up his leadership role in the U.S. House to consider running for something in 2012 – maybe governor, maybe president.
Dion called Pence a “force of nature,” giving him kudos for being a skillful speaker and a vigorous campaigner with a clear message and a national platform.
“If he wants to be president, he has a much better chance as a governor than a House member. We don’t elect House members to the presidency,” Dion said. “So he may be taking the long-term view. He’s got time, and being governor would give him some executive experience.”
His conservative social base would undoubtedly help Pence on the GOP side but could hurt him with moderate Democrats or independent voters in a general election.
Pence has one major advantage – he can continue to raise money federally as a U.S. congressman and later transfer it to a state committee.
That hurts Skillman. A state law passed this year prohibits state officeholders and candidates for state office from soliciting or accepting campaign contributions during a budget session, which runs from January through April in the Indiana General Assembly.
Pence, in Congress since 2000, wouldn’t be affected by the rule because he doesn’t have a state campaign finance committee.
Skillman is raising money now, including holding a Barn Party fundraiser on Saturday. But she hasn’t said officially that she is running for governor, likely because Daniels has urged her to focus on the upcoming legislative session.
She is personable and has gained the loyalty of many party faithful because she is always there to help with local candidates and events.
State Sen. Jim Banks, Whitley County GOP chairman, said he believes she rivals Pence in name recognition, noting a poll a few years ago that showed she was popular and well-known.
“She was off the charts,” he said. “Republicans love her.”
And she has both executive and legislative experience, including 12 years in the Indiana Senate.
“To be lieutenant governor is no small thing,” Dion said. “And she would be our first woman governor in the history of the state.”
But her profile hasn’t been as high as that of other former lieutenant governors, in part because economic development responsibilities were shifted to the quasi-governmental Indiana Economic Development Corp.
She hasn’t taken ownership of any major issues under Daniels, but McDaniel said she has done plenty.
“She has been involved in the agriculture scene and has headed up the legislative agenda for years, helping it get passed,” he said. “She has been a major player, and she is one of the most prepared politicians I have ever met.”
Most Republicans are hoping there won’t be a primary fight but some think it could be an advantage.
“As a Republican leader, it’s exciting to have two all-star candidates, in my opinion,” Banks said. “I think a primary is a good thing. It’s going to make one or the other a better candidate to take on the 800-pound gorilla in Bayh. I think Becky should run no matter what. It’s good to have a choice, and it’s a good choice.”
