WASHINGTON -- Hoosier farmers should expect to see a spike in income this year, the federal government and a Purdue University economist say.

Farm income in Indiana is likely to be 20 percent ahead of last year, which was the second-highest farm profit year in a decade. Nationally, farm profits are expected to be 24 percent above 2009.

A 20 percent increase in farm profits would add $508 million to the state’s economy.

The recession has pushed down prices in other sectors – fertilizer and energy, for instance – which means it costs less to produce an acre of crops, said Purdue’s Christopher Hurt, professor of agricultural economics.

In addition, prices for many crops, especially wheat and corn, have increased as drought or floods in other parts of the world reduced yields, he said.

U.S. agricultural exports are expected to break the $100 billion mark this year for only the second time.

“Agriculture is one of the few major sectors of the economy today that has trade surplus, which we are now forecasting to be a little over $30 billion,” Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said.

In addition to weather-related crop losses in Russia, Ukraine, Canada and Kazakhstan, “China bought corn from the U.S. in the spring of 2010, which was the first time in 15 years,” Hurt said.

The bottom line, Vilsack said, is “American agriculture is leading the way towards an overall recovery in this country.”

The agriculture sector wasn’t hit as hard by the recession as other parts of the U.S. economy, and the recovery is more robust.

Both the Agriculture Department and Purdue project farm income to increase in 2011 as well, although Hurt said it’s not likely to be the 20 percent increase of this year.

It’ll cost somewhat more to produce an acre of soybeans, corn or wheat, Hurt said. He said corn prices will likely be up a little, soybeans slightly lower and wheat sharply higher. The overall effect will be 2011 farm income that remains strong, he said.

sylviasmith@jg.net